The 151st Kentucky Derby, which will take place this Saturday, isn’t just a race—it’s a 20-horse demolition derby where almost anything can happen. This year, post positions looks like they will play a significant role.
If you’re a fan of raw speed, tactical brilliance, and international drama, buckle up—because the 2025 Run for the Roses is shaping up to be one of the most unpredictable and thrilling editions in years.
Speed in the Middle
The middle of the gate is loaded with firepower. Four of the most aggressive early runners—Rodriguez (4), American Promise (5), Admire Daytona (6), and Luxor Cafe (7)—are crammed together like flint and steel.
Rodriguez, Baffert’s powerhouse colt, drew Post 4 and is coming off a wire-to-wire win in the Wood Memorial. Mike Smith knows Churchill like the back of his hand, but he’ll need all his guile to get position and avoid a suicidal pace.
American Promise, trained by the ageless D. Wayne Lukas, is the emotional pick for many. A big-striding Justify colt, he’s flashed brilliance late—most recently dusting the field in the Virginia Derby by 7 ¾ lengths. But from Post 5, he’ll be dragged into a duel whether he wants it or not.
Admire Daytona, the UAE Derby winner, brings his bullet-train cruising speed from Japan. From Post 6, he’ll have to tangle early—and fast.
Luxor Cafe (Post 7) is another Japanese raider with tactical speed and serious late punch. He blew the doors off the Fukuryu Stakes and arrives unbeaten. A clean trip puts him right in the mix.
This central speed cluster almost guarantees chaos in the first quarter-mile.
Who Wins the Tactics War?
Amid the middle melee, horses drawn wider with more versatile running styles might get the dream setup.
Journalism (Post 8) is the morning line favorite (3-1) for a reason. Undefeated and surgical in the Santa Anita Derby, he stalks, pounces, and destroys tired leaders. If the pace melts down, Journalism will be reading their obituaries at the eighth pole. But that closing style could be a problem in the larger Derby field.
Sandman (Post 14) is flying a little under the radar—but don’t sleep on him. The gray Tapit colt put the field on notice with a devastating rally in the Arkansas Derby, closing like a freight train in the final furlong. With all the speed drawn inside, Sandman could get a dream trip mid-pack and come rolling late. He’s the kind of closer who wins Derbies when the pace melts down—and this one just might.
Burnham Square (Post 9) enters the 2025 Kentucky Derby as a formidable contender, having secured the top spot on the Road to the Kentucky Derby leaderboard with 130 points. His record of 6 starts: 3 wins, 1 second, and 1 third, has already amassed career earnings of $977,755. His notable victories include the Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes and a thrilling last-to-first finish in the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes, where he edged out East Avenue by a nose, surging from last place to first place. Notably, he is the only gelding in this year’s Derby field, aiming to become the first gelding to win the race since Mine That Bird in 2009.
The Underdogs
Chunk of Gold (Post 17) is this year’s folk hero—a $2,500 yearling who clawed his way up the ranks. He’s never finished worse than second, no matter how tough the field. He doesn’t have a marquee prep win on his résumé, but he’s run his heart out in every start, including runner-up finishes in the Risen Star and the Louisiana Derby. With his tactical speed, iron will, and relentless closing kick, he’s the blue-collar brawler in a field of bluebloods.
Publisher (Post 13) stands out—not for his victories, but for his unique position as the only maiden in the 2025 Kentucky Derby. However, his recent performances, including a second-place finish in the Arkansas Derby, demonstrate his potential to compete at a high level. As a son of Triple Crown winner American Pharoah, Publisher possesses a pedigree that suggests he can handle the Derby’s demanding distance. While history is not on his side—only three maidens have ever won the Kentucky Derby, Buchanan in 1884, Sir Barton in 1919, and Brokers Tip in 1933, Publisher’s consistent performances and strong lineage make him an intriguing longshot in this year’s race.
The Japanese Invasion
The Japanese horses aren’t just here for the scenery anymore. They’ve won the UAE Derby, the Saudi Cup, the Dubai World Cup—and they want the Derby next.
- Admire Daytona is the flashier of the two, with a long, fluid stride and experience on dirt.
- Luxor Cafe is the silent assassin—well-schooled, mentally tough, and closing hard when others fold.
They drew the right spots to get involved early. Don’t be surprised if one—or both—are in the top four.
Derby Day Weather: Will Mother Nature Play a Role?
As of Wednesday, April 30, the forecast for Louisville on Derby Day is promising. The National Weather Service predicts a high of 66°F with mostly sunny skies and only a 20% chance of precipitation. This suggests that the track conditions at Churchill Downs are likely to be fast, favoring horses with early speed and those who perform well on dry surfaces.
However, earlier in the week, Louisville experienced rounds of storms, which could have lingering effects on the track. While the main track is expected to be dry by race time, any residual moisture could influence the performance of certain horses, particularly those with experience on off tracks.
Historically, nearly half of the Kentucky Derbies have been run on wet tracks, so it’s always wise to consider how horses have performed under such conditions.
Prediction Time: Who Wears the Roses?
If the pace unfolds like it should (read: thermonuclear), Journalism is the most likely to capitalize with his stalking style and top-tier talent.
But if you want a horse with a big return on your two-dollar bet, Publisher or Chunk of Gold are your smart plays—each with the ability to pick up pieces late while the frontrunners burn each other out.
Want a live longshot? Luxor Cafe, the Japanese closer with finishing power, could stun them all.
Final Take
This year’s Derby has speed, drama, international flair, and one hell of a draw. Expect a cavalry charge into the first turn, tactical warfare down the backstretch, and a dogfight in the final furlong.
Bring your mint juleps. This is going to be a war.