Cross country jumps lend themselves to realism!
Typically Bench jumps are jumped the other way. This one was obviously flagged incorrectly!
Points are deducted for any cutlery that falls off the table!
Benches and Picnic Tables
An unexpected guest
Imagine arriving at the barn and finding a young moose hunkered down with your horse! Of course, who could blame him? Soft bedding, all you can eat buffet and a horse friend.
The herd grows
I drove by this horse for months wondering if I would ever see someone out playing with him.
Last September I posted a photo of a bouncing horse that was sitting in a field next to a road I drive down (Out to Pasture). It struck me that the horse looked lonely — I never saw a child playing with it. The toy reminded me of one I had when I was a kid.
The addition of the second horse made the first one look happier.
Then one day last November, a second horse appeared — a friend, at last! The two bouncing horses were together all winter and while I still never saw a child playing with them, at least they had each other (every horse needs a turnout buddy). The new horse was smaller, and his addition made the pair look playful.
The newest horse is larger and more elegant than the first two. Perhaps the child is getting taller and needs a larger mount.
A couple of weeks ago I was driving down the road and was amazed to see that a third horse has joined the herd. The newest addition is a larger more elegant horse than the first two. He’s quite a handsome paint and he looks a bit newer than the rest. I particularly like how they’ve been arranged in the new spring grass. It’s almost as if they are getting to know each other. Or perhaps, they are having a tea party.
I don’t worry about the bouncing horses anymore. Even though I have still never seen a child playing with them it’s obvious they are well loved.
2012 Kentucky Derby Hats
The Kentucky Derby always brings out the most interesting array of hats, ranging from the sublime to the truly ridiculous. Here are a few from this year’s Derby.
This lovely hat provided some shade during the 85 degree day!
It appears that some of the most outrageous hats were worn by the men in the crowd.
This fellow has taken the “Run for the Roses” seriously.
There’s a horse at the top of this mountain of flowers.
This is a particularly elegant one.
I like this one a lot too.
On a day that hot I can’t imagine wearing this on my head.
I think this is called a fascinator.
I’ll Have Another wins the 2012 Kentucky Derby!
I’ll Have Another showed an impressive burst of speed to win the 2012 Kentucky Derby
For awhile I thought that my pick, Bodemeister had the Derby. He looked in good shape coming into the home stretch after leading the field. But, it was I’ll Have Another, ridden by Derby newcomer Mario Gutierrez and trained by Doug O’Neil, who rallied and passed him in a good burst of speed. Maybe he got a pep talk from Lava Man (who won more than $5 million after being bought as a claimer) in the post parade — who now ponies him on race days!
I’ll Have Another is bred for distance so his burst of speed at the end was right on form. He’ll probably have a strong showing in the Belmont, too. The only question mark about him has bee that he has been very lightly raced . . . and his recent shockwave treatment for a tight back may indicate a soundness issue. However, for a horse that was bought as a yearling for a scant $11k, he’s certainly brought in a good return on investment!
One side note – he is the first horse in Derby history to win from post #19.
Gone Hunting!
Just to get in the spirit of tomorrow, here’s another hunting collage.
How to pick a Derby winner
Based on the “scientific” methods discussed below, I predict that Bodemeister will win the Derby on Saturday. His name and post position are not mitigated by any factors that might slow him down.
Maybe you don’t have time to study the stats, stand on the rail and evaluate the morning gallops. Maybe you don’t care the Hansen was rank during his first workout at Churchill Downs this morning . . . or that Daddy Long Legs won’t even work on the track until Friday . . . or that Take Charge Indy is being ridden by Calven Borel (who has ridden three out of the past five Derby winners).
After all, there are plenty of other ways to pick a Derby winner!
It’s all in the name
Nearly a quarter (23%) of Derby winners have had names based on real names, including George Smith (1913), Paul Jones (1920) and Giacomo (2005). Bodemeister is named in honor of trainer Bob Baffert’s 7-year-old son Bode, who was named after skier Bode Miller. Other contenders this year are Hansen and Trinniberg.
Horses names that are verbs or adjectives have won 14% of the time — like Charismatic (1999) and Affirmed (1978). This year that would include Done Talking, Optimizer and Prospective.
I predict that Dullahan will come in second (based on his post position, his name and the fact that his dam is also the mother of Mine That Bird)
Horses with historical or fictional names have won 12% of the time. This year that group includes Union Rags, Dullahan, Creative Cause and I’ll Have Another.
Horses with names that are word plays have won 10% of the time. This year that might be Daddy Nose Best or Went the Day Well.
Horses with animal related names have won only 3% of the time. This raises the odds for Daddy Long Legs and Sabercat (but don’t tell Animal Kingdom!).
Gemologist starts with a handicap as horses with names based on occupations have won only 2% of Derbys.
But Rousing Sermon needs more than just prayers as horses with religious names have won only 1% of Derbys.
Reading the tea leaves and other random stats
If the name game doesn’t do it for you, there are all kinds of statistics that can give you the insight you might need to either place your bet or cross a horse off your list.
No mare has ever produced two Derby winners. So that crosses Dullahan off your list, since his dam is also the mother of Mine That Bird.
No horse has ever won a Derby if they had blinkers either added or taken off for its last prep. That eliminated Creative Cause.
Only two horses won the Derby after breaking their maiden at Turfway Park (or predecessor Latonia), the last being Alysheba in 1987. So if Gemologist isn’t cursed by his name, he might lose based on his first win.
Only one horse (Smarty Jones 2004) has won the Derby after racing over Aqueduct’s inner track. That, along with the fact that he has starting gate issues, puts Alpha at a disadvantange.
Beware the ides of March? No Derby winner since at least 1929 broke his maiden in March (either at 2 or 3) like Went the Day Well. His first victory was March 3, 2012. Also, the only time an owner, trainer and jockey teamed for back-to-back Derby wins was 1972-73 with Riva Ridge and Secretariat.
Read more about Kentucky Derby 2012 Horses: Cases for and against at the Courier Journal
Post Positions
Union Rags should come in third, based on his post position and his name. However, since he’s trained by Michael Matz (Barbaro) I suspect that a lot of people will be cheering him on.
More scientific than the above ways to chose a winner are the stats associates with post positions. In a race with 20 runners, where a horse starts the race can have a big impact on how it finishes. Below are the post positions drawn by each horse in this year’s field along with the number of wins from each post from 1900 – 2009. Keep in mind that the very large Derby fields are a relatively recent phenomenon. In the early years, a field of seven was more usual but since 2004, the field has been limited to 20.
2012 Post Positions
1. Daddy Long Legs (12)
2. Optimizer (9)
3. Take Charge Indy (8)
4. Union Rags (10)
5. Dullahan (12)
6. Bodemeister (6)
7. Rousing Sermon (8)
8. Creative Cause (10)
9. Trinniberg (4)
10. Daddy Nose Best (10)
11. Alpha (3)
12. Prospective (3)
13. Went The Day Well (4)
14. Hansen (2)
15. Gemologist (3)
16. El Padrino (3)
17. Done Talking (0)
18. Sabercat (1)
19. I’ll Have Another (0)
20. Liaison (2)
So, which horse will win?
Based on the three systems outlined above, I’d have to say that Bodemeister will likely win the Derby, Dullahan will be second and Union Rags will come in third. Off to bet the Trifecta!
A different kind of horse power
I’ve seen horse bicycles but never a motorcycle tricked out like this. Somehow it seems fitting that it’s an Arabian!
