Secretariat the Favorite in the Triple Crown Showdown

Secretariat the odds-on favorite for Triple Crown Show Down

Tomorrow we will have the chance to watch the best thoroughbreds of all time come together in the dream race of a lifetime, but it comes as no surprise that Secretariat is the odds-on favorite for the Triple Crown Showdown tomorrow with current odds of 7-2. Citation follows him at 4-1; Affirmed and Seattle Slew at 5-1 and Whirlaway, Count Fleet and American Pharoah at 6-1. The longshots here are Omaha, Gallant Fox and Assault at 20-1. Post time is 5:45 tomorrow, May 2nd.

Who will win?

According to Steve Rogers, CCO of Virtual Sports for Inspired Entertainment:

“We calculated probabilities for each of the 13 horses to win the race based on all of the available data points: Their past form, their performance under certain weather conditions, their opponents, and so on, in order to create theoretical probabilities.”

Tech Republic

Of course, there will always be intangibles with a horse race of this magnitude. The algorithm is set, the probability has been determined, but all bets are off once the starting gate opens.

“We feed that information into our virtual sports platform and generate a random number that we map against the probability range, meaning that while the result is random, it is more likely that the horse with the highest probability will win the race and least likely that the horse with the lowest probability will win the race. But as with any random draw, and with the magic of the Kentucky Derby, any horse could win this race.”

Steve Rogers in Tech Republic

Through the Kentucky Derby: Triple Crown Showdown, the Churchill Downs Foundation is supporting COVID-19 relief & is matching every dollar donated up to $1,000,000. Plus, all donors will receive a code to get $20 when they bet $20 or more on the May 2nd Arkansas Derby from Your contribution will support Team Kentucky Fund and Direct Relief.

Just for fun, let’s watch some of the past Kentucky Derbies. I’ve chosen some of the older ones that you might not have seen before.

Gallant Fox in 1930
Whirlaway in 1941 (highlights from all three Triple Crown races)
Count Fleet in 1943
Citation’s win in 1948
Secretariat’s win in 1973

Who are you betting on tomorrow?

3 thoughts on “Secretariat the Favorite in the Triple Crown Showdown

  1. Thank you thank you thank you for alerting me to this virtual race BEFORE it actually showed on TV. I wish Randy Moss /the producers had shown the odds for more than a second, and the order of finish. But I’ve found it online. I find it interesting that the four last horses: War Admiral, Sir Barton, etc, were all horses from the 40’s and earlier. I’m sure this is due to many things: heavier horses (they had more bone, then), poorer quality of track (given today’s technological advances in material science), and ..well, let’s be real…horses back then were fed hay and oats. Not some of the superduper supplements today.
    Whatever I really enjoyed watching the CGI race. I’d always wanted to see how it would play out, all the Triple Crown horses in one race. I had no idea how to do it, so I was tickled by the fact that someone..obviously a horse race fan with computer experience and plenty of Covid 19 enforced time on his or her hands, created it.
    I don’t remember hearing, or seeing what the length of the race was.
    I knew Secretariat would win, his time of 1.59.2/5ths is a record that hasn’t been beaten, as they said, but I was hoping that Citation…”Mighty Si,” would place second, and he did. What a great horse he was, oh, my. I was very happy to see Seattle Slew coming in third.
    Fun, fun, fun. I’ll watch this over and over.

  2. It was a fun race! Not as good as the real thing, but it’s amazing what technology can do. I’ve also found a virtual Aintree Grand National. I’m going to watch that one next. The best part is that I won’t have to worry about any horses getting hurt on that one.

    Even for the flat races like the Triple Crown, I’ve gotten to the point that I almost prefer to watch them after they’re done and I know everyone has come home safely.

  3. I hear you. Last year’s KD…I watched Mongolian Groom’s performance and saw that left hind hock pop. Even in the saddling paddock, I could see something wasn’t quite right…so, like you, these days, I am always watching a race with my fingers crossed…please, no breakdowns.

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